Troodon formosus (with all of the Stenonychosaurus material included). It almost seems normal, until you look at the critters it evolved from and remember how many secondary reversions it evolved.
Darn homoplasy.
Edit: Reposed and minor updates to the silhouette. Freshness now guaranteed!
The head looks so different (and more interesting) that what I expected, based mostly on popular depictions I must confess; it's always given an ostrich like head.
You're right - a lot of Troodon reconstructions seem to be based on hocus pocus more than actual specimens (granted there aren't a whole lot of specimens, but you should still use what we have!).
Certainly I agree that it's possible. How likely depends in part on which definition you use. Going with Gauthier's original apomorphy-based definition (dinosaurs that had wings used in flapping flight that gave rise to birds) troodontids would have to be secondarily flightless, which I doubt is correct, but could be.
Using the branch-based definition that has gained popularity (closer to modern birds than to Deinonychus) it becomes much more likely, as troodontids could well turn out to be closer to birds than dromaeosaurs.
Of course another problem is that it's not clear that all the critters we consider basal dromaeosaurs, basal troodontids, or basal bird-line taxa will actually stay in those respective groups. How that shakes out in the coming few years will have an impact on where "troodontids" and "dromaeosaurs" end up in relation to "avialans".
Well, I don't personally assign much weight to the "troodontids descended from flying ancestors" hypothesis...maybe I'd ascribe a 10-15% likelihood to it, while I find it reasonably likely that troodontids could be closer to birds (although it's not my preferred phylogenetic hypothesis) - probably at least a 1/3 chance by my odds. So 2-3 times more likely I guess?
Of course those numbers are just my own take on the data, there's no way to really calculate such percentages.
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